Guess How Many Homes Are Selling in San Diego!
Before you read this post, humor me and humor yourself; take a guess… How many residential properties have sold in San Diego County so far this year?
According to my most recent research today on our Sandicor Tempo MLS system, there have been 26,431 residential properties sold through our MLS so far this year (and the year isn’t over yet… There are currently more than 6,800 listings that are listed as “pending”, which means they are in escrow, AND more than 4,000 “contingent”* short sale listings which could all potentially close before December 31st – easily taking the total over 30,000 sales). How does that compare to 2005 (right before the market busted)? Well, Sandicor reports that there were 37,908 total sales in 2005. I hate to be the one breaking this to you in case no one has told you yet… People are buying San Diego real estate… Lots of people… Don’t take it from me; take it from the actual sales statistics.
Let’s look at the data a little more closely. What are people actually buying here in San Diego County? Where are the potential deals? Here’s a little bit of interesting info for you: 21,492 of the sold listings so far this year have sold for $500,000 or less. In other words, about 2,000 people every month this year have bought a home/condo in San Diego County worth $500,000 or less. Moving on to the next level… There were 3,410 sales this year in the $500,000 to $750,000 range, 1,187 sales in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 range, 785 sales in the $1M to $2M range, 150 sales in the $2M to $3M range, and 56 sales for $3M or more (with the most expensive sale price being $17,350,613 – don’t ask me what the extra $613 was for!).
Here’s the next interesting step. Guess how many homes are currently listed as active for-sale listings… Only about 8,000 (which would be about 3-4 months of inventory at this year’s sales rates). But that’s just the big picture. If you truly want to understand San Diego’s real estate market, you need to dive deeper. Right now there are 3,580 properties listed for less than $500,000 (plus 4,039 contingent short sale listings, which I’m not counting as active listings). That’s less than a two-month inventory for that price range, and guess what! Those properties have been selling like hot cakes! Multiple offers, bidding wars, you name it, it’s been happening all spring and summer long.
Let’s look at the inventory for the next price level: $500,000 to $750,000. There are currently 1,522 properties listed for sale (with 299 extra contingent short sale listings). That’s about a five-month inventory, and you guessed it, less bidding wars.
Next, there are 1,024 active listings between $750,000 and $1,000,000 (plus 95 contingent short sale listings). That’s about a ten-month inventory (again, I’m using the sales data from this year to predict the current sales trends).
Next, there are 1,339 active listings at $1M to $2M (plus 46 contingent short sales). That’s almost a 20-month inventory if you use this year’s sales data. Then you have 470 active listings in the $2M to $3M category (with only six contingent short sales). We’re talking a 33-month inventory here, folks (but certainly you would expect the buying trends to change from 2009 to 2010, right?). Maybe.
Lastly, there are 541 properties currently listed at $3M or higher (Do you want to know the highest price? The highest priced home currently on the market is listed at $50,000,000 in Del Mar). There are two contingent short sales in this category, and if these listings sell at the rate that they did this year, then there is a 100-month inventory at this price level.
If all this data is driving your brain crazy, let me sum it up for you. If you want to buy a place for less than $500,000, chances are pretty good that you are going to be in a “fight” with three, four, five, or maybe twenty other buyers when you write an offer (but to be sure, you should sit down with your exclusive buyer agent and analyze the market data for the area of town you want to buy in – each area can be far different from the next). It’s best if you are a cash or conventional (20% down) buyer in the lower price range – sellers seem to like it when you have more money and less contingencies in your offer.
If you can spend more than $500,000, then you can probably breathe a little sigh of relief. You may not be competing with a ton of buyers, and you may still be able to have the “pick of the litter.” In fact, in the higher price categories there may even be a few opportunities to find a “smoking deal” if you are patient.
Let me just end with a plug for my company. If you are a sincere buyer in this market, you need to seriously consider what an exclusive buyer agent can do to help you find your dream home. I’m not going to go into details here. All I’m going to say is that you need to do your research and find an agent who is going to represent your best interests all the time and actually be worth the commission he/she earns. You won’t have to pay your agent (the sellers are already doing that), so it ends up being a free service for you (And don’t think that you’re saving the seller money by not using a buyer agent. Most of the time, the seller has already agreed in advance to pay the extra commission to the listing agent if there is no buyer agent.). Unless you have a ton of experience in buying CA properties (and you actually want to spend all the extra time doing what an agent would do for you), you would be crazy not to find yourself a top-notch exclusive buyer agent today. AND DON’T COMPROMISE YOURSELF BUY HIRING A “BUYER AGENT” WHO WORKS FOR A COMPANY THAT TAKES LISTINGS! For Pete’s sake, find an agent whose entire company works exclusively with buyers (that’s what an exclusive buyer agent is). That is the only way you can be guaranteed the best representation as a buyer in this market. Oh, by the way. That’s what my company does. We’re an exclusive buyer agency.
If you want to search all of the active listings in San Diego County, go to my website at http://Listings.Globella.com. If you are looking for a luxury home, go to http://Luxury.Globella.com. If a downtown condo is up your alley, go to http://Downtown.Globella.com.
If you just want to find out more about our company (and exclusive buyer agency) you can start on our home page at http://globella.com.
Have a great day!
Justin Gramm
Exclusive Buyer Agent, President
Globella Buyers Realty
858.437.2662
justin@globella.com
http://globella.com
P.S. You can find San Diego real estate sales statistics at http://www.sandicor.com/stats.html. I also used our MLS system (which is only available to Realtors) for some of my research. I may have made some mistakes in translating the data, but I have made every effort to provide you with accurate information in this post. Of course, the stats will change tomorrow.
* A “contingent” listing (as defined by Sandicor) is a listing that has an accepted offer subject to lender approval (short sales), REO approval (foreclosures), or Court approval (bankruptcies/probates).
